Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy (25)

Entering the NFL season the Philadelphia Eagles had the potential to be fantasy football gold with new coach Chip Kelly’s up-tempo philosophy and style of play.
And coach Kelly did not disappoint anyone who grabbed Eagles players in their fantasy football drafts.
I know I’m extremely psyched since I have Philadelphia back LeSean McCoy and receiver DeSean Jackson in three of my six leagues.
McCoy ended up with 184 yards on 31 carries and a touchdown. Jackson had seven receptions for 104 yards and touchdown. Tight end Brent Celek also produced with two receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown.
Quarterback Michael Vick wasn’t a dominating force out there but he produced some decent stats too, most notably in the touchdown department. He threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 54 yards and had a rushing touchdown.
Now, if only these guys can stay healthy for 16 games......

As the opening day for the NFL's regular season approaches and the prreseason winds down, many fantasy football leagues are anticipating last-minute drafts.
I have had two drafts already with four drafts coming up over the next six days ( three online and one live draft on Labor Day that involves current and former members of the New Haven Register sports staff).

As the preseason winds down the stock of NFL players always rises and drops as the NFL playing environment comes into focus. What has drawn my interest recently is the rising stock of Philadelphia running back LeSean McCoy and I am planning on drafting him if the other elite backs (and Calvin Johnson) are gone in my upcoming drafts.

In July and early August McCoy was being drafted late first round to middle second round. Now, in many drafts he is among the top five backs taken. At MockDraftCentral.com, McCoy's average draft position has dropped to 11th overall but he has been taken as low as No. 5 to as high as No. 17.

There are durability concerns since he was plagued by injury last season (concussion late in season) and he tweaked his knee early this preseason. According to the Eagles' website the knee injury was minor. Last season he struggled with 840 yards rushing and two touchdowns. There are also concerns backup Bryce Brown will get his share of touches, although he had some fumbling issues last season.

A big plus for McCoy this year is new coach Chip Kelly who believes in an up-tempo offense with plenty of option scenarios. The big plus with McCoy is he can help you in both standard and point-per-reception leagues with his ability to catch the ball.
I see McCoy getting back to form and rushing for around 1,400 yards and 10 TDs and 50-60 receptions for 350-400 receiving yards.

The New Haven Register and its nationwide newspaper group 21st-Century Media/Digital First Media is ramping up its fantasy football coverage this season.
One feature for fantasy football team owners to key on for some in-depth advice is the weekly Fantasy Football Lunchtime Chat held on Wednesdays from noon to 1 p.m. The chat is conducted through our Michigan newspaper group with fantasy football experts Drew Ellis of the Oaland Press and Don Gardner of the Macomb Daily with yours truly serving as the third host.
The first chat was held on Wednesday (Aug. 21) and you can access the complete transcript at the following link: http://bit.ly/1arbpjk

Various subjects were discussed to help fantasy football owners get the edge in their upcoming league drafts from sleepers and injuries to what round is the most advantageous in drafts this season.

Throughout this week the New Haven Register has been publishing my top 10 fantasy football rankings with a different position published each day. My overall top 50 ranking (all positions combined) will be published on Sunday.

Here are the links to the top 10 rankings published through Thursday:

Top 10 quarterbacks: http://bit.ly/16H47GP

Top 10 running backs: http://bit.ly/13KFCTd

Top 10 receivers: http://bit.ly/13OLTgM

Top 10 tight ends: To come

Top 10 kickers: To come

Top 10 defenses: To come

Dan Nowak is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and has been covering fantasy sports for over 20 years. He won the FSWA Insiders Fantasy Football League national championship in 2010.

I participated in my first of six fantasy football drafts on Monday night, the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Insiders Fantasy Football League, and as it always is with my fellow fantasy sports experts at the FSWA, it was a challenge. Among the fantasy football experts in my league are Jamey Eisenberg of www.cbssports.com and Mike Barner of www.Rotowire.com.

The FSWA Insiders Fantasy Football League is comprised of 60 members of the association who are split up into five 12-member leagues. It is a point-per-reception league. No one has won the national championship in this tough league more than once and I plan to be the first. I won the championship in 2010.

The playoffs for this expert league are a little more complex than your normal playoff system, as it should be with its high level of competition, using both rotisserie style (total accumulated points) and head-to-head style.
After11 weeks of head-to-head play, the top two teams from each of the five divisions with the best record and the top two scoring teams (two per division) advance ro the playoffs. In the playoffs, each team starts with their average score from the regular season. In weeks 12-14 there is a rotiisserie format with your total points added to your score. After week 14 the top four teams with the most accumulated points advance to a two-week (weeks 15-16), single-elimination four-team head-to-head tournament to determine the champion.
Whew...sounds more complicated than it really is folks.

Anyway, as it happens with me sometimes, there was a glich in the drafting of my team and it happened in the coveted first round where I had the 10th pick overall. I wanted to select LeSean McCoy but inadvertantly hit the wrong button and ended up with quarterback Drew Brees. A mistake, but it is a mistake I can live with since he is the No. 1 ranked QB in my Top 10 QB ranking list (see links to my Top 10 rankings below).
My second pick was receiver Brandon Marshall and by the third pick I was desperate for a quality back and went with my 2013 sleeper Giants back David Wilson. My fourth pick was New England receiver Danny Amendola and I took a chance with my fifth pick and went with Patriots injured tight end Rob Gronkowski.
In our league, we have a flex position where you can plug in a back, receiver or tight end.
My next two picks, to cover myself if Gronkowski misses the first four games, I went with Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley and in the seventh round I went with another tight end, Cincinnati's Jermaine Gresham.
The challenge with this draft is it is the only one I'm in where there are 20 rounds. After the 12th round, it gets pretty dicey trying to find quality players in any draft.

But as it turned out, I'm fairly happy with my team:

Starters
QB: Drew Brees
RB: David Wilson, Ahmad Bradshaw
WR: Brandon Marshall, Danny Amendola, Miles Austin
TE: Jermichael Finley (if Gronkowski is out)
K: Phil Dawson
Def/Special teams: San Francisco
Flex: Jermaine Gresham.

Bench:
QB: Carson Palmer
RB: Danny Woodhead, LeGarrette Blount, Daniel Thoams
WR: Jacoby Jones, Santana Moss, Santonio Holmes
TE: Rob Gronkowski (starts if healthy)
K: Stephen Gostkowski
D: Giants (my last pick of the draft)


Links to Dan Nowak's Top 10 fantasy football rankings:

Quarterbacks - http://bit.ly/16H47GP

Running backs - http://bit.ly/13KFCTd

Receivers - http://bit.ly/13OLTgM

As the NFL regular season draws near so does the fantasy football season and team owners are searching for anything that will give them an edge in their upcoming league drafts.
Over the next seven days, starting today online and in the New Haven Register on Sunday, my Top 10 rankings for all six positions followed by an overall top 50 ranking (all positions combined) will be published.
Each player will be analyzed with a comment posted for each one explaining why he is among my top 10.
First up will be my rankings for the top 10 quarterbacks followed by running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers, defenses/special teams and then the overall top 50 will conclude the series Aug. 25.
There are obviously the no-brainer rankings with Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson and New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham the No. 1 picks for their positions. But you will always find a player or two or more among my top 10 rankings that you don't find in most rankings. These are the players to key on and take advantage of in your drafts.
Here is a link for the Top 10 Quarterbacks - http://bit.ly/19qj12x

By the way, I've been writing about fantasy sports about 20 years, I'm a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and in 2010 I won the FSWA insiders Fantasy Football League championship, a league comprised of 60 fantasy football experts nationwide.

The 138th Preakness Stakes is Saturday and eight horses will be trying to beat Kentucky Derby winner Orb and prevent him from having a shot at the Triple Crown. VOTE below for who you think is going to win the Preakness. FInal results will be available when voting ends at noon on Saturday and we'll release the results soon after.

ALSO, be sure to check out my Preakness column and video for my take on how to bet the Preakness at this link - http://bit.ly/10CC96h .

Fantasy sports of a different nature as things could be getting a little steamier than usual in late May at Niagara Falls.
According to a report by the Associated Press, female wrestlers from the United States, Canada and the Ukraine will meet at Niagara Falls for an exhibition meet later this month.
In an attempt to promote the sport on an international scale, Wrestling Canada announced today (Friday) that the three countries will face off in matches on May 31 in what has been called “The Battle At The Falls.” The meet will take place on the Canadian side of Niagara Falls.
The AP report goes on to say the female wrestling tri-meet actually mirrors an upcoming exhibition between the U.S., Russian and Iranian men’s teams set to be held on May 15 in New York City.
The demonstration is designed to wrap up a monthlong push to promote the sport internationally by FILA, wrestling’s governing body, in the wake of the IOC’s recommendation that the sport be cut from the Olympics.

When Sportech Inc. took over the Connecticut Off-Track Betting operation two years ago, officials at the time made it clear it was going to be extremely customer friendly and make the OTB experience an exciting one for its fans.
Sportech, which has re-branded its Connecticut operation that is now called Winners Connecticut OTB, continues to make good on that promise. It has announced it will offer the $20,000 Winners Palm Beach Kennel Club Challenge, a greyhound handicapping tournament series that will begin Saturday. Winners Connecticut OTB has partnered with the Palm Beach Kennel Club, one of the premier live greyhound racing venues in Florida, to provide the $20,000 event that will consist of two individual greyhound handicapping events overall - a $10,000 event Saturday and another $10,000 event on Dec. 14.
Cash prizes will be paid out to the top 10 contestants who have accumulated the most earnings. First place prize is $5,000 followed by $1,500, $1,200, $800, $500 and $200 each for 6th through 10th place.
Patrons can participate at any of the 15 OTB sites in the state, including Sports Haven, Milford OTB, East Haven OTB and the Shoreline Star in Bridgeport, or through the Winners Connecticut OTB telephone wagering system.
The entry fee to play is only $20 with the fee used to make your handicapping contest wagers that are limited to win, place, show or quiniella bets. Fans who register by Friday for the first event will get a free $10 betting voucher. If you enter by phone an additional $10 will be added to your phone account.

The event is open to customers aged 21 and over. Greyhound racing fans living outside Connecticut can participate in the contest by calling 800-468-2260. Winners Connecticut OTB also offers telephone wagering services to customers in Arkansas, Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Wyoming.
For more information and to register online, go to www.MyWinners.com.

In addition to giving its OTB customers a handicapping contest, over $3 million was invested in upgrading every OTB venue in the state in 2012 and renovations continue today. A month ago Sportech also announced that starting in April Winners Connecticut OTB will offer online horse wagering.

In case you missed it.....
In the week leading up to Super Bowl XLVII, sportsbook managers of the 183 casinos in Nevada were hopeful the state could reach the coveted $100 million handle for the biggest single-day betting event in that state.
When the dust cleared on Monday and the numbers tallied by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which regulates gambling in Nevada, the handle didn't hit the $100 million mark but it came pretty close.
With a huge amount wagered on San Francisco the final three days, a record $98.9 million was bet overall on the Super Bowl (including prop bets) according to figures released by Nevada Gaming Control Board.
The previous record was $94.5 million wagered in 2006 in the Super Bowl when Pittsburgh defeated Seattle.

What a Super Bowl!
Overall I can't complain about the run I had in the NFL playoffs.
Yeah, I know my prediction of overtime didn't happen but it was close. When Baltimore led 34-29, I figured San Francisco would get a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to go ahead 37-34 and then the Ravens would add a field goal late for the 37-37 tie. Of course that never happened with the Ravens' late goal line defensive stand against the 49ers.
As it turned out, I was 2-2 in the game itself - correct saying the Ravens would win and cover against the spread and wrong saying the game would go under and into OT.
Overall in the NFL playoffs against the spread I went 7-3-1. I'll take that record any day.

The Super Bowl has historically been the biggest single day betting event in Nevada and the ultimate goal has been a $100 million Super Bowl handle.

According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which regulates gambling in that state, the record stands at $94.5 million set in 2006 when the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Seattle Seahawks.

Las Vegas Hotel and Casino sportsbook director Jay Kornegay, famous for the hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets he creates each year, typically takes a cautious stand when discussing whether an upcoming Super Bowl will produce a record handle.

But this is an unusual Super Bowl with many story lines. Internet reports believe last year's record of 111.3 million people viewing the game will be shattered and Las Vegas officials are anticipating the Super Bowl betting record will fall too.

Kornegay agrees.

"I think Nevada sports books will have a record handle this year," Kornegay said. "About 80 to 90 percent of the total wagering on the Super Bowl takes place between the Friday and Sunday leading up to the game. Wagering has gone well this week indicating there is a lot of interest in this game. The Baltimore Ravens have been getting the most early betting interest but we believe a large amount of money on the 49ers will come in this weekend."

Mark Franco, a New Haven native who is a professional sports gambler in Las Vegas, is taking a wait-and-see approach regarding a record Super Bowl handle.

"All the early money has come in on the Ravens as the line has dropped from as high as 5 to what it is now (San Francisco favored by 3 1/2)," Franco said. "Sports book directors do expect the 49ers money to come late as most of the betting happens Friday to Sunday.
"Sports book managers are talking about coming close to a record handle but I'm not sure it will get there. We'll see."

Betting is normally light for the Super Bowl with two weeks to go to the big game. But the betting lines started to pick up Tuesday in Las Vegas with most of the money going on the Baltimore Ravens who are still favored by 3.5 points over the San Francisco 49ers. Wagering is starting to get interesting with about 80-85 percent of Super Bowl betting expected to take place today (Friday) through Sunday,
"All the early money has come in on the Ravens since the line has dropped from as high as 5 to  3 1/2 now," said Mark Franco, a New Haven native who now lives the dream as a professional sports gambler in Las Vegas. "They expect the 49ers money to come late because most of the betting happens on Friday, Saturday and Sunday the weekend of the game."
As of Tuesday about 60 percent of the wagering was going on the Ravens according to VegasInsider.com. On Friday morning more money started going on the 49ers with that Tuesday number going down to 55 percent of  the wagering going on the Ravens and 45 percent on the 49ers.
"Sports book managers are talking about coming close to a record handle but we're not sure it will get there," Franco said. "We'll see what happens as Thursday and Friday aproaches."
The record handle for Super Bowl wagering in Nevada is $94.5 million set in 2006 when Pittsburgh defeated Seattle according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which regulates gambling througout Nevada..

Check the link below and see why yours truly believes this Super Bowl will be the first to go into overtime:

http://bit.ly/XIEpYA

This blog routinely discusses fantasy when it comes to sports but once in a while we’ve got to get a little real.
ESPN’s Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith had one of the most heated debates on Thursday morning on ESPN's First Take when it comes to the subject of Jets quarterback Tim Tebow.
While their tirade went off on several tangents, their bottom line was right on the money – Tebow wins games and in the 2011 regular season won more NFL games than he lost at 7-4 as a starter for Denver.
Bayless is such a huge Tebow supporter he has urged the Jets to free Tim Tebow to give him new life on a new team and started a “free Tebow campaign” on Twitter using the hash tag  #freeTimTebow.
The problem with many NFL coaches and officials is that they are purists who have preconceived ideas about how things should always be done. A successful NFL quarterback is someone who is supposed to be around 6-foot-5 with an accurate, strong arm. They typically stay in the pocket but if they scramble there better be a good reason for moving out of that pocket and they better be able to throw accurately on the run.
Completion rates have to be high. A quarterback better be able to deal with pressure and make quick decisions - read defenses and be able to check down from one potential receiver to another within seconds until an open guy is found.
And oh yeah, you need to win games.
But being unconventional leads to unpredictability and ultimately excitement for fans.
Just about everyone who talks about Tebow prefaces their discussion by saying Tebow isn’t a good quarterback and is far from being a prototypical NFL quarterback.
But the guy just wins.
In college while playing for Florida from 2006-09, he led the Gators to two national championships, was nominated three times for the Heisman Trophy and won it in 2007.
Last season Tebow became a media sensation, leading a Denver team that was 1-4 when he became the starter to the playoffs and then pulling off a huge upset with a win over Pittsburgh in the first round of the NFL playoffs.
Here is an example of what Tebow has the potential to produce – in the 29-23 OT win over Pittsburgh he threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, including the memorable 80-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas on the first play in overtime.
The recent Tebow bashing also had me thinking about a commentary that D.J. Gallo wrote for ESPN.com during the 2011 regular season comparing Tony Romo, considered a prototypical quarterback, to the unconventional Tebow. Here is the link - http://es.pn/oIvs6H.
I’ve always been a big Tebow fan and I’ve always believed he could be successful in the NFL.
There is something special about Tebow when he is on the football field. He finds a way to make positive things happen for his team and I believe it starts with his faith. He certainly wears his religion on his sleeve, but I believe his religious faith is what gives him a positive take on the field on every down and every situation. It is that religious faith that gives Tebow the faith in himself to produce, faith in his teammates to produce and faith in his coaches to make the right moves and decisions. The results were obvious in Denver last season with Tebow’s late-game successes, his poise under pressure and overall leadership ability.
NFL experts have said Tebow is a product of the system he was in during his college days and it didn’t transition well to the NFL game. The key is for an NFL team to instill that similar system that works for a Tebow-run spread option offense and to also have a strong defense that complements that offense.
The exciting thing for fans is you never know what is going to happen with Tebow on the field. You could get an 80-yard TD bomb or a 50-yard running play. You could also get a few sacks and interceptions. But with Tebow starting it's never boring and based on his makeup and history he will always try and make something positive happen.
The Jets should give Tebow a shot and a start for one game to see what would happen. If not, like Bayless says, free Tebow and let him go to a different struggling NFL team that would embrace an unconventional spark.

 

 

 

With a week to go for the start of the NFL season, the biggest push of the draft phase of football is going on from coast to coast. If you draft with a top-five pick, it's a great way to start your season. But don't always think the concensus No. 1 pick by most fantasy football experts is the way to go.

While Arian Foster is the No. 1 overall pick in the majority of drafts, my top five picks begin with a player who is a bit more consistant when it comes to fantasy football production.

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice is my No. 1 pick. He is reliable, has a solid offensive line to give him the holes he needs to run through and he produces as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

At No. 2, I’m still not thinking Foster.

After starting last season as a holdout and then struggling the first half of the regular season, I think Tennessee back Chris Johnson will be on a mission to make amends for 2011. He’s a guy who still has breakaway speed and he’ll also have a fair amount of balls thrown his way too.

I’m looking at Foster as my No. 3 guy. I think Andre Johnson is healthy enough to take a chunk of touches away from Foster. Don’t get me wrong, Foster is solid. But I think Andre Johnson lowers Foster’s production a bit.

Philadelphia back LeSean McCoy signed a new contract and is ready to roll at No. 4. He was a touchdown machine last season and he is another back that produces on he ground and through the air.

At No. 5, I’m looking for the maximum fantasy points I can compile at this stage and that’s why my pick is Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson. He is being projected by most fantasy football websites to produce anywhere from 300-350 fantasy points this season depending if you are in point-per-reception league or a standard NFL league.

My top five:

1.      Ray Rice

2.      Chris Johnson

3.      Arian Foster

4.      LeSean McCoy

5.      Calvin Johnson

 

By Dan Nowak

Last season in the NFL’s preseason, some people scoffed when I wrote early and often that Cam Newtown and the Carolina Panthers and A.J. Green and the Cincinnati Bengals would be relevant fantasy football producers in the 2011 season. My preseason tout of Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning being an elite producer in 2011 wasn’t too shabby either.
In the 2011 New Haven Register Media/Arthur Guinness Memorial Fantasy Football League, Manning and Green helped contribute to a 10-3 regular season record for me.

This season, most fantasy football experts coast-to-coast are ranking San Francisco players as third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh tier players in drafts this season. However, I believe the 49ers’ offensive producers will offer impressive production as they work toward their goal of getting to the Super Bowl.

Many experts, and rightly so, base their predictions and advice on hard facts – previous season stats, trends, preseason workouts, etc. But sometimes you have to think out of the box and as a seasoned fantasy expert you need to - trust your gut instincts.

Motivation is a factor that plays a huge role in the NFL. In the NFC championship game last season, a non-fumble call on the Giants’ Ahmad Bradshaw late in the fourth quarter followed by an overtime field goal by the Giants denied the host 49ers from advancing to the Super Bowl.
Motivation? Imagine living this past offseason with that frustration.

One thing almost every fantasy football expert agrees on is the 49ers’ defense/special teams unit projects to be the best in the NFL this season. But don’t sell the 49ers’ offense short.
Starting with quarterback Alex Smith, his average draft position on mockdraftcentral.com is quite bad. Through Saturday’s (Aug. 4) drafts at the site, Smith was only being taken in 5.9 percent of the mock drafts and overall anywhere from the 141st pick to not being drafted at all.
As a game manager last season, Smith had his best season with 274 completions for 3,150 yards and 17 touchdowns and he rushed for two touchdowns as the 49ers ended up 13-3 in the regular season.

This season, in an attempt to improve offensive production, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh upgraded the secondary with playmaking receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. The 49ers also drafted A.J. Jenkins and back LaMichael James who can also catch the ball.
The key with Moss, at least for one season, is that he will likely be motivated to work hard and produce to show he’s still got something left in the tank. He took last season off and that should help any wear and tear the 35-year-old receiver had playing for three different teams in 2010.
Manningham should also be motivated. After trying to get $7 million a year in free agency and no takers in the offseason, he ended up with a two-year deal with the 49ers for a total of $7.5 million. Only 26, he will likely want to prove he really is worth $7 million a year. When he wasn’t injured for the Giants last season he was certainly productive, including a TD catch in three playoff games en route to the Super Bowl title.
The speedy Jenkins will likely be used sparingly at first behind Moss and Manningham. But he is one injury away from making an immediate impact.
Then you have No. 1 receiver Michael Crabtree who ended strong last season and elite tight end Vernon Davis, the only 49ers offensive player ranked in the top 10 on fantasy football websites at his position. The addition of Moss and Manningham should take some defensive pressure off Crabtree.

Many experts are saying avoid the 49ers’ receivers because individual production will be low due to spreading the ball around. There is also Smith who hasn’t exactly shown arm strength or accuracy on a consistent basis.
But I think this is Smith’s breakout season with his quality receiver depth that includes a future hall of famer (Moss). There is also motivation here with Harbaugh making a pitch to bring in Peyton Manning in the offseason. Smith will show that he belongs and that his recent upgraded three-year contract for $24 million was well spent.
I see Smith shocking the world with 4,000 yards and 35-plus touchdowns.
Obviously not every 49ers receiver will get 100 catches and 1,000 yards. But you start with Crabtree who I think will lead the pack with 95 receptions for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs and Moss follows with 70 receptions for 800 yards and 8 TDs. Davis is next with 70 receptions for 750 yards and six TDs and then Manningham with 60 receptions for 600 yards and five TDs.

Due to the depth at receiver and the apparent move to open up the passing game, many believe it will lower running back Frank Gore’s production. Backup Kendall Hunter and the addition of backs Brandon Jacobs and James are also expected to take some touches away from Gore.
But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Gore is still considered the every-down back. Last season he had 282 attempts and lowering that workload a bit should benefit Gore who has a history of being injured.
Another concern is Gore’s limited use as a receiver out of the backfield last season with only 17 receptions. But opening up the passing game should improve those numbers as well.
I see Gore with 1,300 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs and 300 receiving yards and four receiving TDs.

Bottom line: I see the 49ers taking no prisoners this season with offensive production improving on every level.

By Dan Nowak

I am convinced the upcoming NFL season is going to be a wild and wacky affair. One obvious impact on the fantasy football season is the Indianapolis Colts’ Peyton Manning-Andrew Luck scenario.
I am convinced that allowing Peyton Manning to move on to the Denver Broncos will have the same implications as the Curse of the Bambino scenario when the Boston Red Sox sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees.
For years after Babe Ruth left the Red Sox the team struggled in the post season – sometimes just to get to the poststeason - while the Yankees routinely dominated the post season. After shipping out Manning, I see the Colts struggling over the next decade – at times just to make the playoffs - as the Curse of the Manning Move takes flight and evolves. On the flip side, I see Manning having the Broncos poised for some serious runs toward the Super Bowl with 3-5 good years left in the tank.

I have been successful in making preseason predictions in the NFL and ultimately fantasy football. One of the most challenging and fun aspects of my job is breaking down the trends, stats and moves, including postseason events, heading into a new NFL season. During that process hunches and gut feelings emerge with certain scenarios looking more and more like sure things. The result is sharing that thought process to give fellow fantasy football team owners an edge when it comes to drafting their team.

As far as this season goes, Manning’s return from surgery has been impressive early on with the Broncos. History has shown this is a dedicated man when it comes to his craft with a burning desire to win every time he steps on the field. He has something to prove after a full season of inactivity due to his neck surgeries and he certainly wants to show everyone he is still the Manning of old.
Like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, Manning also makes everyone around him better. The Broncos certainly have the pieces in place for success, especially fantasy football success.
Manning has the kind of physical receivers to work with that he never had at Indianapolis. Eric Decker has emerged as a reliable and productive route runner. I believe with an elite quarterback chucking the ball Decker easily projects to having 100 receptions, 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Last season with Tim Tebow as quarterback, in his last seven games Demaryius Thomas ended up with nearly 800 yards and four touchdowns. What keeps replaying in my mind is his 80-yard touchdown run in the wild card game to beat Pittsburgh. Thomas’ ceiling is quite high with Manning at QB and I see him projecting to about 80 receptions, 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
The Broncos also added some key pieces to the puzzle to help Manning. Brandon Stokley and Andre Caldwell provide depth at the receiver position. We know how much Manning loves to target tight ends and the Broncos added veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen who should make an immediate impact. Tamme, a former Colt who Manning is familiar with, is the likely top tight end target.
Taking a hit will be the running backs whose production will likely be down a bit with another running back-by-committee situation. Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman lead the way. McGahee is the No. 1 running back but with a good preseason effort Moreno could emerge as a productive guy with his catching ability.
How does all this project for Manning? I expect to see 4,000-plus yards and 35-plus touchdowns.
Note fantasy friends that the Broncos also have a friendly fantasy football playoff schedule with Oakland on a Thursday night in week 14 and Cleveland in week 16.

Now we get to the Colts and the Curse of the Manning Move.
When the Colts released Manning, that very day I told everyone who would listen the team would regret that move. Although it would have cost the Colts some money to keep both Manning and Luck, I thought Manning would stay on at least a year to ease Luck into the NFL pressure cooker.
Now don’t get me wrong. Understand that this is not an indictment of Luck’s talent at quarterback. I know how productive Luck was in college. He elevated the program at Stanford and being selected a Walter Camp All-American and Player of the Year last season was one of several post-season awards that validated that talent.
There just seems to be a perfect storm of events that are conspiring to hurt Luck in the NFL and cause the Colts to crumble for years to come.
As good as Luck is, as much as the experts say Luck is NFL ready, we still have to see how that talent transitions to the much faster and physical level of the NFL. He hasn’t played in a live NFL game yet.
I can recall a trio of quarterbacks who, like Luck, were drafted in the first round and had great college careers but ultimately failed in the NFL – Matt Leinart (2006 draft, Arizona, 10th pick), David Klingler (1992 draft, Cincinnati, sixth) and Jerry Tagge (1972 draft, Green Bay, 11th).
There will be pressure. While there will be a certain amount of pressure on Robert Griffin III and his debut in Washington, Griffin isn’t replacing a legend like Luck is with Manning. Colts fans used to winning games in the postseason with Manning won’t be happy with another 3-13 finish like last season.
The Colts should finish better this season. But Colts management hasn’t made it easy for Luck. Receivers Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon are gone along with tight ends Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme and longtime center Jeff Saturday.
Other changes that will make things interesting is the addition of new head coach Chuck Pagano and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. How long it takes for the veterans and new coaches to get on the same page will be key to any success.
Former UConn back Donald Brown will be the every-down back this season and is expected to take some pressure off Luck. But Brown has been mediocre at best in three NFL seasons.
One plus is the addition of tight end Coby Fleener. He’s a rookie but played with Luck at Stanford. The Colts also re-signed receiver Reggie Wayne. But he’s on the downside of his career and will likely be double and triple teamed with Garcon out of the picture.
Also, Luck isn’t immune to injury. In 2009 he suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand against Notre Dame and missed the post season. Hopefully he will stay healthy because you don't like to see any NFL player get hurt.

Don’t be surprised to see these factors come together to sow the seed for the Curse of the Manning Move and produce a frustrating future for the Colts.

I’m a guy who believes in karma. I think the Colts created some bad karma by not keeping the guy that elevated their program the last 12 years (1999-2010) he played there. I see the black cloud hovering over the Colts for at least 10 years. There needed to be a transition period going from Manning to Luck.
This season, I think Manning leads the Broncos to the AFC championship game, maybe even the Super Bowl. I think Luck does his best to get the Colts to finish 7-9.

(Dan Nowak is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and was the champion of the 2010 FSWA Insiders Fantasy Football League. Follow Dan on Twitter @NHRDanNowak or friend him on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NHRDanNowak.)

http://www.fantasyfootballfest.com

The past five years on my Northeast Fantasy Football page on Facebook, at various times I have discussed my intention of creating a fantasy football convention geared strictly toward the fantasy football fan and team owner. It would be an interactive event where team owners could go and be immersed and surrounded by fantasy football friends and experts.
My goal was to have the event at Arena at Harbor Yard in Bridgeport, the XL Center in Hartford or possibly one of the state’s casinos, venues easily accessible and ideally located between two of the biggest markets in the East – Boston and New York.
However, I quickly found how cost-prohibitive such an event would be and over the years I’ve been in search of investors/sponsors/advertisers for the event.
As it turns out ReedPOP, a division of Reed Exhibitions in Norwalk, Conn., has beaten me to the punch and has produced and organized the Fantasy Football Fest to be held Aug. 18-19 at the Atlantic City Convention Center in Atlantic City, N.J.
Kudos to ReedPOP.
Fantasy sports conventions are typically held in the Midwest and West and geared toward the fantasy sports media industry and business industry. But the Fantasy Football Fest is exactly the way I envisioned a fantasy football convention to be on the East Coast. It is geared toward the fantasy football fan with guest speakers and panelists who will give advice and tips to help get a team owner prepared for his or her fantasy football draft.
Space will be provided at the event for leagues to conduct their drafts during the Fantasy Football Fest including a draft day party. There will be athlete appearances (Michael Vick, Lawrence Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Joe Theisman and others) and fantasy football celebrity/expert appearances, including keynote speaker Matthew Berry of ESPN.
There will also be interactive events including sports video tournaments, athletic competitions, sports memorabilia, a tailgate party and beer tasting event. Fantasy football vendors will also show off their wares in booths throughout the event.
In a recent press release, the folks at ReedPOP expects about 25,000 fans in the two-day event. If this is marketed properly, I see that as a very conservative number with at least 75,000 to 100,000 attending.
I’ve been competing in fantasy sports leagues for over 20 years and I’ve been writing about it for that long as well. Based on my experience conducting/hosting three fantasy football seminars in the New Haven area and organizing/hosting a live fantasy football radio talk show and web show, fantasy football folks seem to get a bit more enthused when they can interact with someone in person.
Fantasy football team owners are always doing research and looking for any way possible to try to get an edge heading into their draft. The beauty about the Football Fan Fest event is you can get tips and advice in a rare live/person-to-person interactive format as opposed to reading stats and advice off an impersonal computer screen.
Tickets are $55 per person in advance (good for both days) and $70 the day of the event. There are group rates and VIP tickets will be offered at a time to be announced. There are no single-day tickets being offered on the Fantasy Football Fest web site. Children 10 and under are free.
For more information, go to www.fantasyfootballfest.com.

Today, I believe the Indianapolis Colts are making a huge mistake releasing quarterback Peyton Manning who I believe will quickly return to elite status.
One of the things I pride myself on when it comes to fantasy sports or my Betting the NFL column during the football season is my ability to consistently make predictions that pan out and become reality. As I see Manning upgrading and improving whatever team he ends up with as a free agent, I also see the Colts struggling for years to come as they prepare to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck with their No. 1 pick.
When it comes to fantasy football next fall, one result of the Manning release for team owners will be having to decide if it’s worth risking an early draft pick on offensive players from the Colts, a team that will likely start a rookie quarterback. The other result is waiting to see what new team Manning ends up with because that team’s offense will enjoy a major upgrade in production and success.
The bottom line is, if Manning was still with the Colts, the pressure and learning curve for Luck would have been more conducive to a successful transition to the NFL.
Other things Luck will have to deal with as a Colts player is a lackluster running game and a historic trend of injuries, something Manning was usually able to overcome. Center Jeff Saturday seems to always be injured and every season in recent years it seems standouts on defense miss multiple games with injuries.
We are supposed to learn from history and the lesson of the 1998 NFL draft should not be forgotten. In 1998, the Colts had a choice between selecting Manning and Ryan Leaf and NFL fans know what happened to Leaf who struggled at the next level as San Diego’s No. 2 pick overall.
The Colts, like 1998, really have two QB choices with their No. 1 pick – Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck or Heisman Trophy winner/Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin. The Colts have made it obvious they are pinning their future on acquiring Luck in the NFL draft and will likely live with his growing pains as a NFL starter.
I’m probably one of the few people in the country who isn’t a huge Andrew Luck fan. Obviously, in college Luck was a great quarterback. But as we know great college QBs don’t always transition well in the NFL and there is no guarantee Luck will excel at the next level. There are some things that knaw at me about Luck, like having an efficiency rating that was fifth in the country last season. How will he handle the constant pass rush or the faster cornerbacks he’ll see in the NFL?
Newton certainly made a good transition to the NFL last season but there was less pressure on him, more self-motivation to prove he could play at that level and he wasn’t replacing a legend.
The media has already dubbed Luck as being NFL ready.
But without Manning in the mix, Luck will be under a constant microscope with fans and the media. And who will be his mentor, who will he learn from, Dan Orlovsky?
One John Lennon thought here: Imagine if Manning was healthy, never needed neck surgery and was still with the Colts. Imagine if the Colts drafted Alabama back Trent Richardson with their No. 1 pick. Imagine how formidable that Colts offense would be.

By the way….

Last season was a good one for me when it came to predictions. Before the NFL season started, I wrote that Cincinnati would have a very good season led by A.J. Green who would be a solid fantasy football producer. I wrote that fantasy football team owners should consider Cam Newtown as a solid backup because he will have NFL success early and often. Before he started a game for Indianapolis I wrote that Dan Orlovsky would eventually lead the Colts to their first victory of the season. I wrote he would be motivated enough in a showcase environment to raise his level of ability and cover pointspreads. While many figured Orlovsky and the Colts would be crushed by New England in their encounter, he went on to keep the game close enough to cover the double-digit pointspread.
Before Tim Tebow became a regular starter for Denver, some people scoffed when I wrote he would play well enough to be fantasy football relevant and even had the potential to lead the Broncos to the playoffs.

Despite six weeks of the NFL season being in the books there are still many players out there on waiver wires who can make a fantasy football impact today.
With six new quarterbacks making starts today that position seems to offer the most value. The guy I like a lot today is Tim Tebow with Denver. While some fantasy experts have mixed feelings about Tebow, this is a guy who can provide Michael Vick-like numbers. Tebow is middle of the road when it comes to the passing game but he has a long history of being prolific in the running game too. If he's out there and you need a QB, expect 20-30 points from Tebow today.
Some experts are also saying stay away from San Diego tight end Antonio Gates who is making his first start since suffering a foot injury the first week of the season. The Chargers will likely limit the amount of plays he will be on the field, but a limited Gates is still better than a full production from most other tight ends in the NFL.
Start Gates if you have him and he should get you 15-20 points.
Also, don't be afraid to start Oakland receiver Jacoby Ford. He has struggled but the Raiders should fall behind early against Kansas City forcing QB Kyle Boller to throw some deep balls early and often.

Heading into this season, team owners in the six fantasy football leagues I'm in had concerns the lengthy lockout would result in a rash of early-season injuries.
That concern has become a reality with players going down with injuries on a weekly basis.
The high-profile injury is obviously the loss of Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning indefinitely with a neck injury. Backup Kerry Collins hasn't been the answer and now with Collins out this week with a concussion Curtis Painter gets his first shot at an NFL start.
In my Betting the NFL column today I led off with Painter and how I believe he is going to make an impact.
The reason I'm making a big deal about this here is some fantasy experts on websites like cbssports.com and Espn are saying stay away from Painter.
This is Painter's shot. Look at what he has to work with - tight end Dallas Clark and host of solid receivers led by Reggie Wayne. I seriously think Painter can throw for 300 yards this week. I am so serious that in my Golf Digest Media League I am sitting Mike Vick in favor of Painter.
Another injury to be wary of is Green Bay back Ryan Grant who is out with a kidney injury. James Starks will take his place but thiurd stringer John Kuhn will get his touches too. I think both players will excel today.